2008

You are currently browsing the yearly archive for 2008.

First, I want to clarify something for context.

I do not believe that what I call "wirearchy" will replace hierarchy holus-bolus as an organizing principle (I have said and written this many times).  Rather, I subscribe to Stan Davis’ perspective, outlined in the book Future Perfect (1987).

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Networks will not replace or supplement hierarchies; rather the two will be encompassed within a broader conception that embraces both. We are still a long way from figuring out the appropriate and encompassing organization models for the economy we are now in."

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So … today in my inbox I found David Gurteen’s 100th newsletter, a folksy and informative ramble through David’s latest peregrinations.  David is a speaker, consultant and human networking "hub" who travels the world animating Knowledge Cafes.

David was recently interviewed by The Economist Intelligence Unit for a report titled "The Digital Company 2013 - The freedom to collaborate".

David outlines the key themes explored by the report, which sound (to me) very similar to several of the key elements of wirearchy I have discussed here and there over the past several years.

I wonder what Bertrand Duperrin or Luis Suarez (just to pick on a couple of energetic thinkers about the organization of the future) might have to say about the digital company of the year 2013 ?

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The digital company 2013: Freedom to collaborate

I was recently interviewed for a report The digital company 2013: Freedom to collaborate. being written by Kim Thomas for the Economist Intelligence Unit.

Key findings:

  1. Technology knowledge will permeate the enterprise.
  2. Social networks will be common in the workplace, like it or not.
  3. Beware information paralysis.
  4. Digital tools will democratise access to information.
  5. Digital tools provide employees with greater control over the information they can access.
  6. IT will also need to loosen the reins.
  7. Ceding technology control will be good medicine.

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“The most valuable things in life are not measured in monetary terms.

The really important things are not houses and lands, stocks and bonds, automobiles and real state, but friendships, trust, confidence, empathy, mercy, love and faith.”

Bertrand Russell (1872-1970) philosopher & mathematician

UPDATE (from anonymous commentator)

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Unfortunately, those things are at an all-time low these days as well. If I were you I’d short empathy and trust.

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Via the Market Ticker blog by Karl Denninger …

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This may be the start of the "bond market dislocation" that I have long feared. I hope and pray not, but if this trend continues Treasury is going to find that it cannot sell its debt into the market without slamming rates higher, especially on the long end of the curve, which means an instantaneous implosion of what’s left in the housing market.

The ugly is that 3-month LIBOR widened today, as did the TED Spread. Both should have come in. They did not. LIBOR is essentially unsecured lending and the bad news is that a lot of corporate (and some personal) borrowing is indexed off it. If you are, you’re screwed.

Why has LIBOR refused to come in despite these "coordinated" effort? Its simple: the underlying trust issue has not been addressed, and nobody is seriously proposing to do so.

Paulson and Bernanke now are truly caught in the box, as I have been talking about for more than a year. As they introduce and fund these silly programs like the "TARP" each new program produces more foreclosures by depressing home values and thus tightens the spiral.

See, as long rates go up house prices go down, since the value of a home for most people is Dependant on what they can finance, and that is directly related to interest rates. Get out your HP12C and run the principal value change for a fixed payment if interest rates change from 6% to 8% or 10% - that’s the impact on the value of your house from these changes that are occurring in the Treasury marketplace.

This outcome is what I warned of in "Our Mortgage Mess" back in April of this year; a potential ramping of borrowing costs for government debt, which will not only make sustaining government spending (and perhaps government operation) impossible, but in addition destroy private credit by driving costs in the private sector skyward as well.

Simply put, the "TARP" or "EESA" must be repealed here and now.

It is unacceptable to risk Treasury Funding destruction in order to bail out some bankers. And make no mistake - there is and will be no benefit to taxpayers.

We are also now entering into earnings season, and Alcoa was a warning blast. They missed badly. That won’t be the last.

This is the "value trap" problem that many investors fall into. You see the market down 30% and think its a great buying opportunity.

It is a great buying opportunity only if earnings going forward can be sustained.

But in this case, they cannot. It is flatly impossible; with Treasury borrowing money like a madman, tacking on more than 20% to the national debt in the space of months, carrying costs will inevitably rise as will taxes. Both of these have a multiplier effect (in the wrong direction) on corporate profits, and in addition the "faux profits" from financial engineering have all disappeared at the same time.

The S&P 500’s profit, in terms of gross dollars, are almost certainly going to come in by 50% from the highs, and that assumes we get a garden-variety recession and not something worse. This of course puts "Fair Value" on the SPX down around 750, or another 25% down from here.

The ugly stick potential is what I discussed yesterday, and that risk is very real. Treasury borrowing cost ramps can produce a 1930s-style dislocation in credit, and if it happens then you will see mass bankruptcies not only in corporate America but among individuals as well as borrowing costs ramp to the point of shutting down the marketplace for credit."

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Thanks to the blog JOHO for the link to Google’s fun little 10th-anniversary exercise taking us back in time …

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In honor of our 10th birthday, we’ve brought back our oldest available index. Take a look back at Google in January 2001.

2001 Web Results 1 - 1 of about 1 for wirearchy. (0.07 seconds)


FirstMatter Lexicon


Wirearchy: An organizing principle for creating structures of governance,
strategy, decision-making and control based on meaning, value, …


http://www.firstmatter.com/newsletter/lexicon.asp?key=Wirearchy - View old version on the Internet Archive

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We are, in my opinion, collectively watching the "mainstreaming" of a revolt against top-down decisions being imposed on citizens and decision-making processes.  People interconnected on the Web are making this happen.

Just one of many examples … CNN pulling up comments from online contributors (via Twitter, facebook, etc.) to set the context fro comments from official and pundits.

People are talking.

At the risk of boring you with my "wirearchy" mantra …

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"A dynamic two-way flow of power and authority, based on knowledge, trust, credibility and a focus on results, enabled by interconnected people and technology"

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For more, check out the link "What is Wirearchy?", over in the left sidebar of this blog.

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Wincingly Funny ?

A new widespread acronym has been born.

TARP = Troubled Asset Relief Program

I’ve also seen it translated to TARP = The Anal Rape of the People.

Ouch !

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This is such a classic tale.

It fits so nicely with a great deal of what I observe about modern North American culture … can’t talk about the negative aspects of what’s really happening (and no, not everything is negative, but it sure as shit ain’t all happy-clappy either).  We must stay positive and upbeat because after all, people don’t want to hear and don’t respond to the negative.

Via the NY Times … read the full piece here

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Shiny Happy Bankers

Virginia Heffernan, September 26, 2008

In my imagination, a bank — a real bank — is suffused with a hush, which is interrupted, rarely, by the low gong of a massive vault slamming shut. The sole personnel are the huissiers of Geneva fortresses, those solemn openers and closers of locked doors. Clients dress in bespoke suits and stand reverent before the ramparts that secure their annuities in gold bars and serve as bulwarks against their ruin.

A bank’s own practice of borrowing and lending on its clients’ fortunes is not spoken of too directly, lest it cloud the illusion that when the money is out of sight, it’s in the vaults.

In my fantasies, banks are never financial-services firms, and Bill Clinton did not sign the 1999 law that repealed the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933, allowing commercial and investment banks to merge.

It seems that the once-glorious Wall Street investment banks — Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns — don’t share my fantasy. Even as they were sick, dying or dead, their Web sites had a chipper, customer-service vibe. They were still babbling about helping me realize my dreams. And money, when I could follow it on these silly sites, tripped around the globe, becoming euros and yen only to spread subprime stardust on razed fields where enchanted condos grew.

It was a missed opportunity. After all, it might have been an excellent time to shore up the confidence of those who wondered what American banks were up to, if not protecting our money. But the banks were sticking with their goofy bravado.

[ Snip ... ]

Over at Lehman.com, I came upon an audio file of a Sept. 10 “investor call” by Richard S. Fuld Jr., the chairman and chief executive of Lehman Brothers. In his remarks, Fuld unfurled “a substantial de-risking of our balance sheet” that he said would “allow the firm to return to future profitability.”

It’s perversely interesting to hear a C.E.O. whose firm was just a few days away from flat-out bankruptcy evince unruffled self-assurance. Whether the plane is going down or just bumping in turbulence, the captain apparently always says the same thing.

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Mind-blowing !

Bring to mind the lyrics of Leonard Cohen’s "Everybody Knows"

Everybody knows that the dice are loaded
Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed
Everybody knows that the war is over
Everybody knows the good guys lost
Everybody knows the fight was fixed
The poor stay poor, the rich get rich
Thats how it goes
Everybody knows

Everybody knows that the boat is leaking
Everybody knows that the captain lied
Everybody got this broken feeling
Like their father or their dog just died

Everybody talking to their pockets
Everybody wants a box of chocolates
And a long stem rose
Everybody knows

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Here’s an exchange between me and a friend.  I like these ideas .. what do you think ?

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Me to Bruce by email

Re: your Tweet …

"For $700B you could wipe out most mortgage and consumer debt. Solon’s wisdom? How come THAT’s "socialism" & big boy bailouts isn’t?

Quite surprised more people are not asking this question … pay it all off for everybody would be one heck of a stimulus for the economy. The problem of course, is that "the ecopnomy" is not for the average working stiff, they are just the raw material for continuing the ongoing growth of wealth of the relatively few "connected".

The average guy and gal MAY now be learning how the game works.

My friend Bruce to me by return email

It would be nice if they did but, alas, highly unlikely.

I have often thought Canada should do exactly that. Now that our finances are in better shape (and we don’t need to sell government bonds just to close deficits) we should:

(a) forgive all consumer debt (I would not do corporate as so much of our corporate sector is owned by outsiders anyway). Solon’s cancelling of all debts in Athens MADE Athens the pre-eminent Greek city-state for two centuries: it also wiped out the entrenched interests in ONE blow.

(b) back the dollar 100% with gold at $1,000/oz or more. (I’d knock a zero off at the same time, i.e. one "new" dollar is 1/100 oz. - thrift is taught by low income numbers and low price points, plus all the junk at China, Inc. (WalMart, etc.) would now be priced in pennies, i.e. indicative of its future worth.) My back of the envelope guess is that with the BoC reserves we’d need $2,000/oz. but an influx of metal as being a gold-standard country might allow a lower number.

(c) borrow nothing as a government. Live within your means. In other words, make choices.

(d) companies can accept US bucks, euro, etc. if they want. For government, you pay in specie (metal).

(e) then start restructuring our tax system to make it clear what’s going for what. You want a carbon tax - fine. Gasoline excise tax, deficit fighting tax, GST, PST, etc. come OFF - the product has a single kind of tax. (Note I don’t say lower taxes [I might like that, but it's not the point] but make the relationship between policy and tax clear to even Joe and Jane Doofus.)

Won’t happen, any of it, of course, just as the $40B we spent on Broadband for rural and northern development infrastructure could have been tendered to a supplier to deliver broadband via satellite to the whole country, free of charge.

Cheers.
Bruce

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Via the Times Online UK

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New era dawns at home of the internet

A network of supercomputers called the Grid will allow information to be downloaded quicker than ever. Tasks that took hours will now take seconds
Murad Ahmed

The dawn of a new internet age has begun. A network of supercomputers, known as the Grid, is to revolutionise the speed at which information is downloaded to personal computers.

The power of the Grid is such that downloading films should take only seconds, not hours, and processing music albums just a single second. Video-phone calls should also cost no more than a local call. More importantly, it should help to narrow the search for cures for diseases.

The Grid, a network of 100,000 computers, is to be connected to the world’s largest machine, the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). It is designed for projects, such as large research and engineering jobs, which need to crunch huge quantities of data, but scientists believe it will eventually be used on home computers.

The Grid allows scientists at CERN, the European Organisation for Nuclear Research, to get access to the unemployed processing power of thousands of computers in 33 countries to deal with the data created by the LHC.

Scientists at CERN, where the world wide web was invented, created the €500 million Grid because they realised that a single computer would not be able to cope with the amount of data the LHC is expected to produce each year – 15 petabytes, or 15 million gigabytes, which would fill 20 million CDs.

They said that it was an extra facility laid on top of the internet, which originally linked computers around the world in the Seventies.

Dr Bob Jones, a CERN scientist, said: “The [world wide] web allows you to access information on other computers. What the Grid allows you to do is not only access the information, but make use of their computing resources and power.”

He likened it to the National Grid. Users would be able to tap into massive amounts of processing power, but the source of the power would change, depending on availability.

Processing tasks will be distributed between 11 gateway computer centres in ten countries, including Britain, which will share them out between more than 140 sites.

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On The March ?

Hardly …

And I agree with John Gray that the return home of the Chinese astronauts from their first-ever spacewalk is a serendipitously-interesting bit of timing.

Via The Guardian (UK).  It’s a very lucid piece .. read the whole thing.

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A shattering moment in America’s fall from power

The global financial crisis will see the US falter in the same way the Soviet Union did when the Berlin Wall came down. The era of American dominance is over

John Gray
The Observer, Sunday September 28 2008

Our gaze might be on the markets melting down, but the upheaval we are experiencing is more than a financial crisis, however large. Here is a historic geopolitical shift, in which the balance of power in the world is being altered irrevocably. The era of American global leadership, reaching back to the Second World War, is over.

You can see it in the way America’s dominion has slipped away in its own backyard, with Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez taunting and ridiculing the superpower with impunity. Yet the setback of America’s standing at the global level is even more striking. With the nationalisation of crucial parts of the financial system, the American free-market creed has self-destructed while countries that retained overall control of markets have been vindicated. In a change as far-reaching in its implications as the fall of the Soviet Union, an entire model of government and the economy has collapsed.

Ever since the end of the Cold War, successive American administrations have lectured other countries on the necessity of sound finance. Indonesia, Thailand, Argentina and several African states endured severe cuts in spending and deep recessions as the price of aid from the International Monetary Fund, which enforced the American orthodoxy. China in particular was hectored relentlessly on the weakness of its banking system. But China’s success has been based on its consistent contempt for Western advice and it is not Chinese banks that are currently going bust. How symbolic yesterday that Chinese astronauts take a spacewalk while the US Treasury Secretary is on his knees.

Despite incessantly urging other countries to adopt its way of doing business, America has always had one economic policy for itself and another for the rest of the world.

[ Snip ... ]

The irony of the post-Cold War period is that the fall of communism was followed by the rise of another utopian ideology. In American and Britain, and to a lesser extent other Western countries, a type of market fundamentalism became the guiding philosophy. The collapse of American power that is underway is the predictable upshot. Like the Soviet collapse, it will have large geopolitical repercussions. An enfeebled economy cannot support America’s over-extended military commitments for much longer. Retrenchment is inevitable and it is unlikely to be gradual or well planned.

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On One Hand …

Warren Buffett says "Must bailout, or Catastrophe" …

Though to be fair, having placed his $5 Billion bet on the table with Goldman Sachs Buffett is hardly what you could call "disinterested" .. and of course he stands to make out like a bandit should the bailout proceed.

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Buffett To Congress:  Bail out economy or face "Meltdown"

WASHINGTON (CNN) — Billionaire Warren Buffett told congressional negotiators that if they can’t agree on a proposed financial bailout, the nation will face "its biggest financial meltdown in American history," two sources familiar with the talks said.

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On the other hand … Naomi Klein points out in this important article that the use of The Shock Doctrine is (once again) in full swing:

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Now is the Time to Resist Wall Street’s Shock Doctrine
By Naomi Klein - September 22nd, 2008

I wrote The Shock Doctrine in the hopes that it would make us all better prepared for the next big shock. Well, that shock has certainly arrived, along with gloves-off attempts to use it to push through radical pro-corporate policies (which of course will further enrich the very players who created the market crisis in the first place…).

The best summary of how the right plans to use the economic crisis to push through their policy wish list comes from Former Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich. On Sunday, Gingrich laid out 18 policy prescriptions for Congress to take in order to "return to a Reagan-Thatcher policy of economic growth through fundamental reforms." In the midst of this economic crisis, he is actually demanding the repeal of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, which would lead to further deregulation of the financial industry. Gingrich is also calling for reforming the education system to allow "competition" (a.k.a. vouchers), strengthening border enforcement, cutting corporate taxes and his signature move: allowing offshore drilling.

It would be a grave mistake to underestimate the right’s ability to use this crisis — created by deregulation and privatization — to demand more of the same.

Don’t forget that Newt Gingrich’s 527 organization, American Solutions for Winning the Future, is still riding the wave of success from its offshore drilling campaign, "Drill Here, Drill Now!" Just four months ago, offshore drilling was not even on the political radar and now the U.S. House of Representatives has passed supportive legislation. Gingrich is holding an event this Saturday, September 27 that will be broadcast on satellite television to shore up public support for these controversial policies.

What Gingrich’s wish list tells us is that the dumping of private debt into the public coffers is only stage one of the current shock. The second comes when the debt crisis currently being created by this bailout becomes the excuse to privatize social security, lower corporate taxes and cut spending on the poor.

A President McCain would embrace these policies willingly. A President Obama would come under huge pressure from the think tanks and the corporate media to abandon his campaign promises and embrace austerity and "free-market stimulus."

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Me ?  I’m with Naomi.  I don’t trust these bastards about or with anything at all.

Of course, you know what’s going to happen.  The bailout is going to proceed without any investigation of alternatives that would truly benefit the average working stiff.  They’ve already learned us all how to keep on being scared.  Most North Amercans don’t even want to contemplate major changes in the way(s) they live.

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Noticed in blog comments somewhere …

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Despite last week, these events will unfold slowly, over months.

The bailouts last week are nothing but bailouts for Wall Street. The problem of over-indebtedness
remains throughout the land.

If Washington really wanted to help the country, that $700 Billion would be directed to helping families stay in their homes and keep paying their restructured mortgages.

Then, and only then, will value return to the mortgage paper on Wall Street. The question is, how much of that paper was based on fraud, condo flippers, vacation homes, second homes and "investors"??

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That - all the speculative money "created" by flipping and fraud - is what drove mortgage marketers’, financiers’ and bankers’ bonuses (bonii ? boners ?) and that is what should NOT be "bailed out".  And that is what royally pisses off the average jane and joe, or at least those who understand what is going on

Joe Bageant wondered, in a response to one of his readers, whether the $700 billion should just be distributed evenly amongst all citizens of the USA, who could then use the money they receive to pay mortgages, spend, reduce debt, etc. - but clearly that would be a massive stimulus to the economy.

Here’s the story, and the exchanges between him and two ‘experts:

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No one is looking out for your interests

[ Snip ... ]

I had the repugnant experience of talking to two economists a couple of days ago, one an international financier, and the other a wealthy developer with a master’s degree in economics (who appears in my book.).

I posed this question to both:

What if we took the bail-out money and paid off every college loan, every credit card, every pending foreclosure and every mortgage in arrears, and every unpaid hospital bill? Wouldn’t that free up a lot of income to stimulate our economy, 70% of which is based on Americans consuming good, services and commodities? Wouldn’t it be better to have the money circulating, stimulating the U.S. economy than stashed in overseas as accounts? If Bush’s little $250 rebate propped up the national economy for a couple of months, wouldn’t distributing the $700 billion push the economy into the stratosphere? What if we used it to pay down the national debt? Wouldn’t the American dollar reverse its plunge? At the very least for the first time in 80 years Americans would actually owe the debt to themselves, not the unseen financial lords.

The international financier said: "It just cannot be done. The financial machinery of our free market economy would fall apart. Then we’d be in worse shape than ever."

"How’s that? It seems like it’s already fallen apart. Been turned into a swindler’s paradise, with the swindlers now asking that all future productivity of Americans be signed over to them, since there’s nothing left to steal at the moment."

"It simply cannot be done. Nor should such socialism ever be allowed. It’s a ridiculous idea."

The economist developer, when asked the same question, "Why not bail out the American people, instead of the fat cats?" was more honest:

"Doing that would have unintentional consequences.’

"Like what? You’re an economist, so tell me."

"Well, I don’t know. That’s why they are called unintentional."

"So why should the American public be perpetually and increasingly in debt?"

"Because debt is the source of American wealth."

"Wealth for whom?"

"Obviously for those who understand the system and have the know how to use it to its best purpose for all concerned."

"Won’t that devalue the dollar over time?"

"Sure, but if you’ve got enough dollars it doesn’t matter. Look at how African dictators live, despite that their nations’ currency is worthless."

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When I read the blog post excerpted below, my first thought was "No way".

Via Firedoglake …

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Palin on SNL Tonight ?

Since she didn’t do so well in interviews, the McCain campaign is attempting a new tactic with Sarah Palin in the hope that she’s cool to some demographic someplace. Word is Palin will try to prove she can actually be funny–or at least a good sport–on tonight’s Saturday Night Live, possibly playing opposite doppleganger Tina Fey.

[ Snip ... ]

So to insure the VP candidate’s protection from polysyllables and pointed humor, on Wednesday security for Gov. Palin conducted a walk-through of the Rockefeller Center studio in anticipation of the possible appearance.

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If indeed the security team did a walk-through, that would seem to jive with the official "possibility".  A later update to the blog post I am citing notes that the McCain - Palin campaign states that the Guv’ will not be appearing on SNL (Saturday Night Live).

One of the phrases Sarah is famous for uttering is "You can’t blink, Charlie" in her interview with Charlie Gibson, when she was referring either to getting a clear view of Russia from her porch, preparing to shoot a wolf from a low-flying helicopter, or staring down one of her children when they are playing "Interrogate a Terrorist" just before bedtime.

One of the comments to the Firedoglake blog post … you’ve got to love it.

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SNL called Palin and she blinked?

snl called palin and she blinked?

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Actors come and go.

Excellent human beings live well in our memories forever.

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Via Joe Bageant …

The financial pros … the mob’s fixers and hit men ?

The last three or four paragraphs of the excerpt below set out clearly, in my opinion, why the "bailout" can be considered theft on the part of those who control the government, in cahoots with those who run the financial system.

They don’t want to give up what they made swindling people over the last 6- 8 years, and in order to scare people enough to comply with the ransom note, they are threatening to let the financial system disintegrate (after having made it into a real house of cards).

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Bail Out is Just More Trickle-Up Economics

[Snip ... ]

Flips were the buzzword of the day. Just about anyone, from the sidewalk wino on up, could qualify for a mortgage. And the price of real estate always went up. So it was a no-brainer to simply bid in for whatever real estate you could get and sell it to the next greater fool. Like all ponzi schemes, the last guy in the chain suffered all the losses.

Now if this happened to your brother-in-law, everyone would express their deep sympathy and then snicker that you knew he was a moron all along. Sooner or later he comes around asking for a handout. He tries to tell you how it’s really in your best interest, how it would avoid painful situations for his family, the children and so on.

The difference this time, is the last guy in the chain happened to be the so called financial pros — giant investment banks, hedge funds and derivatives holders. Of course your brother-in-law doesn’t have connections to the Fed, the U. S. Treasury and the White House. These guys do. So the net effect is they simply don’t want to pay up — plain and simple. They concoct all sorts of nonsense about why it’s really in your best interest, how it will avoid painful situations and so on.

So the so called bail-out is just another in a long line of brazen attempts to move your money to the pockets of the very, very rich. This is trickle up economics. It was formerly just called a swindle.

It’s the same as your brother-in-law, except this time they signed your name to the debt. The idea is to dump the losses on people who had the good sense or sufficient control of their greed to avoid overextending themselves to begin with.

Let me explain it in simple terms. About six years ago I bought a 900 foot one bedroom condominium on the North Carolina coast, paying a little under $100,000. I sold it because the expense was more than I could handle with the condo dues, insurance and so on.

This past year a realtor I know had five of his clients purchase a 900 foot condominium on the North Carolina coast paying $1.5 million. Not one put a single nickel into it. The first and second mortgage covered everything including the mortgage brokers, mortgage bankers, real estate agents, real estate attorneys, and the developer. All made out handsomely.

Now my condo was probably better situated than theirs, at a closer beach with more amenities. I actually make a little more money than they do. The difference, and this is absolutely key, is that I expected to have to pay for mine. None of the other guys expected to pay anything. They expected to flip for an amount roughly twice my annual salary. When it came time to actually make some payments, no one was home.

The reason for this, obviously, is that their condos were never worth anywhere near that price to begin with. The price quickly melted to about $800,000, then $600,000 and there are no takers. I would probably be willing to pay about $250,000 if I was in the market.

Now here’s where the bailout swindle comes to play. The bailout is intended to prop up the mortgages that were made on the funny money. They want us to pay up on the $1.5 million in mortgages that we all had the good sense to avoid.

They are not asking for any return of money from the mortgage brokers, mortgage bankers, real estate attorneys, real estate brokers or developers. And none from the purchasers. Every single wrong-doer in the scam walks.

And we should pay for them so that an insanely inflated price won’t have its day of reckoning.

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Cobbling together several blog comments I have found, as I sometimes do, may help connect some dots.

The issue is not really bad or stupid lending, although that can be considered a factor.  Understanding the deeper causes also helps explain why pumpinmg the additional $700 billion into the system is likely to be just a stop-gap measure that may restore confidence and let the system run a bit longer, but …

The real culprit is leverage, enabled by deregulatiion, bought and paid or by lobbyists.

That’s who ultimately is being protected … lobbyists’ clients, who were allowed to make money out of thin air by making risk into a "product" and sellling it over and over again.

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"This is not caused by sub prime loans:

 
You add up the really bad loans and the not so iffy loans and even if they were 2 trillion, which they are not.

The collateral of the mortgages loans are still worth at least 70% or more of the loans.

The problem is they sold loans in slices and some were sold 30 times."

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I get what you’re saying, but …

artificially inflated housing prices, along with many years of stagnant wages and high unemployment put lots of people in a desperate situation. I have no sympathy for speculators or people who knowingly took out "liar loans", but let’s remember what made this all possible in the first place: extreme deregulation.

It does suck to have acted responsibly and to be left facing an enormous bill, but keep in mind that there are always people who’d like to borrow beyond their means.

This never was a problem until Wall Street lobbyists got everything they asked for."

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A True Nugget

(Hence saving these companies at all cost from bankruptcy, because actual bankruptcy would make real values public.)

They can mark (value)-to-market–safest.("This pile of silver ingots is worth…..")

They can mark-to-model–necessary. (Date: 1958: "So Hewlitt & Packard you say this thingamabob–oh, ‘integrated circuit’—is a different kind of transistor? Its gonna replace vacuum tubes huh? Hmmm")

Or they can mark-to-made up (the last several years. How well can you sell it?)

But the rules of the game are when you get better information (move toward mark-to-market) about the price/value of an asset your accounting has to reflect that.

And THIS is a big part of WHY the push for an immediate federal bailout. Other firms can look at an AIG being rescued (and AIG’s own accountants can say) "They/We’ve been bailed out….a rare, one-time event that cannot serve as a precedent (in accounting terms) for valuation."

If a firm is failing and sells itself to another firm (Merrill Lynch sells out to Barclays) how the buyer evaluates what they are getting is a PRIVATE matter between the firms.


But if a failing firm files chapter 13 then all the insides of the busted firm are made public—a matter of public record. And other firms holding similar assets (MBS, CDO, swaps, etc) now have open, available data (not quite market data but a fair approximation) to value their OWN assets. They can (perhaps MUST) put a value on that #107B "security" that is backed by the real, physical asset of a drivetrain of a 1987 Yugo.

That’s what they’re afraid of. That’s what binds them together–their mutual, interlocking fear of being found out. That’s what would pull them all under. (Darkly, it could indeed pull us all under—the Depression scenario.) Enron "worked the refs" (Arthur Anderson Accounting) the same way and Anderson went along with them and then went down with them.

Sobering to say the least, but also explains the urgency on Wall Street’s part to get this done yesterday.

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A country’s flag is its logo, supporting its brand.

Clearly the USA needs to re-structure and then re-brand.

Via Chris "Rageboy" Locke:

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A Modest Proposal for a New Flag Design

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"Runnin’ On Empty"

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hehehe …

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Today (September 25) there are a range of events across Canada to  celebrate our ongoing push into the exciting new field of digital media …

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Spontaneous kisses

By BUZZ BISHOP

Today at noon people are being encouraged to randomly kiss for two minutes in a busy downtown intersection. This will also be happening in cities across the country in a simultaneous flash mob being organized by Jennifer Ouano of Elastic Entertainment to celebrate National Digital Media Day (NDMD08).

"High tech = high touch," she writes on the mob’s Facebook page. The event is designed to inspire "hope, celebration, spontaneity and fun."

But what does kissing have to do with digital media? Jennifer’s inspiration was a friend who made a video about a similar traffic-stopping stunt shortly after Sept. 11. Dozens of people stood in a busy intersection and kissed for two minutes.

Flash mobs, or spontaneous gatherings doing something totally random, show the power of the internet, and the connections people can make. Whether they are inspiring blogs, or educational meetups, digital culture is alive and well in Canada and NDMD08 is meant to highlight it.

Lynda Brown of NewMediaBC has been a leader in raising the profile of the digital business community, and is the creator of NDMD08.

"After tiring of the proverbial ‘banging of head on computer screen’ I thought a new approach was needed," she writes. "Over a Sunday morning coffee, I came to the conclusion that the only thing that might work would be good old-fashioned grassroots effort."

And it’s not all just kissing.

The national events will mostly focus on gatherings of new media creators, at unconferences - shared learning environments also called camps. In Vancouver, bloggers will be meeting across the city to create their content in groups in highly visible places.

The events couldn’t come at a better time for the digital media industry, right in the middle of a federal election campaign as the Conservatives were expected to kill the Canada New Media Fund.

"It is of the utmost importance that the Canadian government supports domestic creators of digital media content so that our exciting industry may continue to flourish in a province rich with innovation, new ideas, and intellectual property," NMBC President Kenton Low wrote in an open letter to the B.C. digital community.

Lynda’s goals for NDMD08 are to bring visibility to digital media creators, connect those in the industry and create a discussion between the industry and community leaders to develop and grow this forward thinking sector of the economy.

So pucker up and give them a big kiss of thanks.

Full details and links at cyberbuzz.com

THE KISS

Interested in The Kiss? Meet on the steps of the Vancouver Art Gallery on Robson Street at 11:30 a.m. when the secret kissing location will be unveiled. Photos, and a way to interact with them will be posted online after the event.

thekiss.ca

TECHIE’S LIFE FOR ME

There are an estimated 3,200 firms engaged in interactive media across Canada that generate total gross revenues in excess of $7 billion. Including full time staff, part time staff and subcontractors, there are estimated to be more than 50,000 people working in interactive media across Canada. (Canadian Interactive Industry Profile, Authored by PWC and CIAIC, 2006).

THE UN-CONFERENCE

The NDMD08 festivities will roll through the weekend as BarCamp will go off on Granville Island. It’s an unconference where the schedule is made up at the start of the session and people are encouraged to be active, participate and share. "Anyone with something to contribute or with the desire to learn is welcome and invited to join." Except, you know, it’s sold out.

BarCamp.org

TWITTER

Stephane Dion and Elizabeth May have joined Twitter, making it now possible to follow all the major parties as they microblog their campaigns across the country. The Twitter IDs for those who would be PM are: @pmharper, @elizabethmay, @jacklayton, @liberaltour and @gillesduceppe.

twitter.com

10 FOR NEW MEDIA

As a part of the inaugural NDMD08, New Media BC is having its 10th anniversary annual general meeting tomorrow afternoon at Radical Entertainment. The usual AGM business will be tackled, immediately followed by a networking event for Vancouver’s digerati.

NewMediaBC.com

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Market Update

Via the Deviant Behavior blog (h/t to Tom) …

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Dear Henry Paulson,

Isn’t this bailout just one big subprime mortgage? Weren’t subprime mortgages typified by shoddy paperwork and blind trust? And here you are, giving the American people a three page outline for $700 billion.

Three fucking pages? We had to put more effort into book reports during grade school, and suddenly that’s enough to vest you with the greatest financial powers in the history of the world.

You want our money and you’re treating it like the last no-down, adjustable rate, give-us-your-finances on a cocktail napkin shell game cooked up by a coked out trader trying to unload a brick of bad credit default swaps on a confused rookie in the bathroom of a plush Wall Street bar.

Aren’t you just asking us to insure your fragile house of cards one more time? Aren’t you just asking us to take out another bad loan and hope all the right things materialize at the right time as long as it’s your pals who have the money?

Aren’t they the ones who fucked us in the first place?

Let’s call this American 419 scam what it is: One last stab at sucking the US Treasury dry before Hurricane Bush blows over and the stripped, shoddy frame of deceit and greed and toxic mold that used to be the US economy is left to the nation’s workers to rebuild, while you assholes tool around the world on your yachts, eating caviar, and dumping all the money we gave you to help us into hidden bank accounts and Chinese startup firms.

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Read the full post here

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The money in the banking and credit-derivative markets (that everyone is now scared of losing since it was all represented on paper by easy mortgages and leveraged debt) was created by the banks lending up to high leverage levels, followed by the financial industry as a whole (de-regulated) packaging and selling the risk contained in the derivative financial "instruments".  The money "created" by these machinations was circulated in the stock market, which kept rising over the past 7 years, much of it sustaining the run-up in value of financial institution stock (and thus the "performance-based" bonuses paid to the CEOs and other executives) as their businesses seemed to grow year-over-year. 

This is, more or less, what Kevin Phillips calls the financialization of the American economy.

As the developing holes in the sub-prime and then Alt-A mortgage markets and credit-derivative markets began to deflate the bubble in real estate prices, the share prices of financial institutions holding unidentifiable levels of rapidly-devaluing assets began to drop and then some insolvencies loomed (Bear Sterns, IndyMac, the FMs and Lehman).

If the share prices of the financial institutions, and thus much of the stock market, are not propped up now, the people who made the money for which they could not sustain the payments (everything that is in play has been created over the past seven years) will lose it.

Preventing these losses is the key reason for the bailout .. in effect, to legitimate the wealth transfer (based entirely on credit), to make it become real as opposed to just happening on paper.

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This is a stick-up, folks !  Just shut up and put the money in the bag, QUICK, before the alarm goes off …  NOW !

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From Glenn Greenwald’s blog, in response to his stark challenge from whiich the conclusion below is excerpted:

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The way it works is that Bush officials decree how things will be, and then everyone — from Congressional Democrats to the Serious Pundits — jump uncritically and obediently on board, even if they were on board with the complete opposite approach just days earlier, and then all real dissent vanishes. That’s how the country in general works. As Atrios says: "We’ve seen this game played before."

… what I do know is that an injustice so grave and extreme that it defies words is taking place; that the greatest beneficiaries are those who are most culpable; and that the same hopelessly broken and deeply rotted institutions and elite class that gave rise to all of this (and so much more) are the very ones that are — yet again — being blindly entrusted to solve this.

… this authorizes Hank Paulson to transfer $700 billion of taxpayer money to private industry in his sole discretion, and nobody has the right or ability to review or challenge any decision he makes.

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Watching all this unfold is astonishing, a once-in-a-lifetime event.

Here are a couple of comments that boil it down …

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Empire of Debt

God bless you, Glenn. You’ve hit the nail on the head and pounded it through the rotted board.

I’ve been reading Bill Bonner’s Empire of Debt over the last few weeks. Then sat astounded as everything he and his co-author predicted a couple years back started happening right before my eyes.

I fear we have only delayed the full impact of the corruption and greed that have been driving our economic and political class for the last few decades.

May the next generation forgive us for letting it happen.

– Alpwalker
[Read Alpwalker's other letters]
Permalink Saturday, September 20, 2008 09:51 AM

I’m no economist…

But, yeah. As usual, I agree 100% with GG. I’m no economist but no matter how I look at this, this is what I see.

Over the past 8-plus years, a bunch of fairly wealthy people on Wall Street gamed the system to become fabulously wealthy by using make-believe money.

Now that that system has lurched towards its inevitable collapse, Bush and his Democrat cronies (yes, I said Democrat) have decided that the only responsible thing to do in order to make sure that their wealthy sponsors don’t lose any real money is to buyout the failing firms, and stick the poor and the middle class (IE, the rest of us, who actually PAY taxes) with a bill totaling a good part of a TRILLION dollars.

Seem fair? Seem sane? Wonder why nobody is even raising their voice about it?

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Ban the Bailout

More and more people are figuring out that the current suggested bailout may not look so good.  But of course everyone’s scared and uncertain of what might happen, so what a great time to pass an unreviewable law that essentially transfers a whole whack of money from taxpayers to the private sector.

Granting telecomms immunity wasn’t enough; letting Cheney state that the office of the Vice-president is not part of the executive branch wasn’t enough; trying to privatize Social Security wasn’t enough; getting rid of habeas corpus wasn’t enough .. these bastards are taking as much of your money as they can while you still refuse to do anything about their criminality.

It’s being done directly under the noses of the American public, in broad daylight, with people in megaphones announcing it.

Via Atrios:

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Great Moments In Legislative Proposals

This is my favorite bit. Well, aside from the whole SEVEN HUNDRED BILLION DOLLARS part.

Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.

Deep Thought

Any member of Congress who looks at the plan to give Hank unchecked power to transfer $700 billion from the Treasury to his friends’ companies and has any reaction other than "You’ve got to be fucking kidding me" does not deserve to hold office.

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… for your light reading pleasure on the weekend.  Thanks to a comment on a blog somewhere out there.

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1. Jesus loves you, and shares your hatred of homosexuals and Hillary Clinton.

2. Saddam was a good guy when Reagan armed him, a bad guy when Bush’s Daddy made war on him, a good guy when Cheney did business with him, and a bad guy when Bush needed a "we can’t find Bin Laden" diversion.

3. Trade with Cuba is wrong because the country is Communist, but trade with China and Viet Nam is vital to a spirit of international harmony.

4. The United States should get out of the United Nations, while our highest national priority is enforcing U.N. resolutions against Iraq.

5. A woman can’t be trusted with decisions about her own body, but multinational drug corporations can make decisions affecting all mankind without regulation.

6. The best way to improve military morale is to praise the troops in speeches, while slashing veterans’ benefits and combat pay.

7. If condoms are kept out of schools, adolescents won’t have sex.

8. A good way to fight terrorism is to belittle our longtime allies, then demand their cooperation and money.

9. Providing health care to all Iraqis is sound policy, but providing health care to all Americans is socialism. HMO’s and insurance companies have the best interests of the public at heart.

10. Global warming and tobacco’s link to cancer are junk science, but creationism should be taught in schools.

11. A president lying about an extramarital affair is an impeachable offense, but a president lying to enlist support for a war in which thousands die is solid defense policy.

12. Government should limit itself to the powers named in the Constitution, which include banning gay marriages and censoring the Internet.

13. The public has a right to know about Hillary’s cattle trades, but not George Bush’s

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Go McCain, Go !

Via the NY Times …

Does this not clearly and fundamentally contradict all the McCain sound bites about Wall Street on television news the last two days ?

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McCain on banking and health

OK, a correspondent directs me to John McCain’s article, Better Health Care at Lower Cost for Every American, in the Sept./Oct. issue of Contingencies, the magazine of the American Academy of Actuaries.

You might want to be seated before reading this.

Here’s what McCain has to say about the wonders of market-based health reform:

"Opening up the health insurance market to more vigorous nationwide competition, as we have done over the last decade in banking, would provide more choices of innovative products less burdened by the worst excesses of state-based regulation."

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A thread of quotes that hopefully offers readers a connect-the-dots moment …

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Russian Roulette

Last night as I was reading all the econ blogs screaming "wtf," I came across the news that the Russian stock market had been forced to close for a couple of days due to its own volatility.

[ Snip ... ]

There’s a saying oft heard in Russian schoolyards: "Go ahead and spit at me. Fill your mouth with shit and spit at me." It may be an indelicate way of suggesting that one should cut off one’s nose to spite one’s face, but it provides some insight into why Russia’s economy, which grew by eight percent last year, has suddenly melted.

[ Snip ... ]

When Putin responded to Western criticism, he was so defiant that Leonid Radzihovski, a columnist for the liberal online political journal Ezhednevny Zhurnal, characterized his government’s diplomatic position as: "If America wants it so much, let it come and make up with us."

[ Snip ... ]

The whole world is in turmoil due to a variety of factors, not the least of which is that some major powers are currently being run by a bunch of macho jackasses. This is a big problem that is easily solved by voting — for intelligent, thoughtful, modern leadership that recognizes that the world is too complicated and too interdependent to be run by chest beating and schoolyard demonstrations of "strength."

[ Snip ... ]

Comment in response to abovegood point. Macho jackasses.

Unfortunately, Digby, it has BEEN EVER THUS!!!!!!!!!!!

Inclusive fitness dictates that human groups are inevitably led by macho jackasses. Alpha-males who piss on the couch, shit on the rug, destroy the shoes, scratch the door, break every damned thing in the living room.

It’s the fault of our genes, and a fair amount of "normative" pressure.

If you ever figure out how to defeat the DNA of an alpha-male, you let us know, because, believe me, that one thing would save the world.

You could neuter every male at birth, saving a few for reproduction, and that might help..but some eunuchs out of history were known to be pretty bad actors too..so hormones aren’t the whole story..

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The playing field certainly seems to be shifting fast.

Shoshana Zuboff and Jim Maxmin wrote a book about 5 years ago titled The Support Economy: Why Corporations Are Failing Individuals and The Next Episode of Capitalism.

I’m not suggesting here that we’re on our way to a support economy; I want to focus on the words "The Next Episode of Capitalism".

Here’s a quote from Digby’s Hullabaloo that offers another perspective on some of the forces propelling the evolution of "capitalism", a concept that I think many  people today take for granted and don’t think much about.

What does capitalism look and act like in a de facto plutocracy ?

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Three Thoughts

[ Snip ... ]

Naomi Klein published a brilliant article in Rolling Stone about the surveillance industry in China and the illegal American connections to it. The article also made the point that China was evolving a new governing philosophy, kind of a "Stalinist-capitalism."

As the US seeks to nationalize more and more failing brokers, banks and insurance companies, while also shredding what’s left of the Constitution’s safeguards, it seems as if we’re evolving into a capitalist-Stalinist state.

O, brave new world…

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O, brave new world … indeed.

As I have mentioned before, the interconnectedness that I often cite as a key driver of wirearchy can just as easily be a dark force (electronic surveillance and various forms of control) as it can be democratizing and empowering.

No doubt we are going to learn a lot more about how we will all live together in this brave new world over the next six months.

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Social computing drives change

Depending upon where we start counting, we are at least thirty years into what we call the Information Age and about ten years, give or take a couple of years, into what we are now calling the Networked Age. This new environment promises to bring as much or more change to our societies as did the Industrial revolution and Taylor’s concepts and principles.

Stan Davis, an eminent American business thinker and theorist, saw this coming twenty years ago (and suggested that the process of large-scale transformation would take somewhere between 30 and 50 years). In his seminal book Future Perfect he stated:

"Electronic information systems enable parts of the whole organization to communicate directly with each other, where the hierarchy wouldn’t otherwise permit it.


What the hierarchy proscribes, the network facilitates: each part in simultaneous contact with all other parts and with the company as a whole. The organization can be centralized and decentralized simultaneously: the decentralizing mechanism in the structure, and the coordinating mechanism in the systems.


Networks will not replace or supplement hierarchies; rather the two will be encompassed within a broader conception that embraces both.
We are still a long way from figuring out the appropriate and encompassing organization models for the economy we are now in."

The early stages of adapting to this large-scale transformation have brought the use of networks and what we call “social computing” into today’s knowledge-intensive workplaces. We are calling this domain or research, theorizing and practical experimentation Enterprise 2.0 (a term coined by Andrew McAfee of the Harvard Business School).

It’s my assertion that the changes social computing will bring to knowledge work and our workplaces will be even greater than suggested by immature experiments in this early-stage adaptation. While the early adopters play with tools that allow them to connect, create, converse, convulse, co-opt, and carry on about all manner of things, including work issues, challenges and opportunities, I believe more experiments, more practice and more experience will highlight how critical it is to design knowledge work differently. Indeed, today’s debates about whether KM is dying or alive and kicking are a vivid example of how much more we will learn about why, when and how to use networks, the web-based tools and services that make them practical and how best to engage the human minds that create and use the knowledge they carry.

David Weinberger is a well-known expert on knowledge management and the hyperlinked web / organization.  He has from time to time written about how the digital infrastructure and the dynamics it fosters "cuts the slack out of interactions" (The Need For Leeway, Journal of the Hyperlinked Organization, October 2002).  We need "slack" to reflect, to think, to imagine, to support the filling in and filling up of the connections we have made between people, information, task and problems. 

And we need analysis and measurement, specialized skills, budgets, accountability and best practices to optimize work and eliminate what is clearly unnecessary, not useful and / or wasteful.

But efficiency is not and will not be the hallmark of human interaction, and human sociology in the modern workplace cannot forever take its architectural design principles from Taylorism. 

As we watch Enterprise 2.0 emerge, I have observed what seem to be regular waves of widgets, applications, platforms, services and people (in roughly equal measure) joining together, using the Web, to meld efficiency and slack—the "both / and" so often cited as characteristic of this new environment.  A flow of questions, responses and pertinent information soldered together to provide a design, or a service, is not the same as carrying out efficient repeatable supervisable step-by-step tasks the result of which are combined with other sets of efficient repeatable supervisable step-by-step tasks to produce repeatable products or services (Reminiscent of “You can have any color Model T you want, as long as it is black”).

Continued resistance

While it appears that the Internet (and the difficult-if-not-impossible-to-control flows of information it engenders) is here to stay, it also seems that about every six months or so there’s another wave of opinion suggesting that "this newfangled hyperlink stuff, personal publishing, connecting social-this-and-that is now officially over and hasn’t yet changed the world".

It’s not news, nor is it surprising, that there is resistance and confusion about why and how to implement Enterprise 2.0 technology and capabilities in today’s organizations - the continuous flows of information and the growing prevalence of interconnected customers and knowledge workers do not fit easily into more-or-less static structures and processes. We all see a lot of resistance on the part of senior managers and executives to the less structured, less ordered world they see the Web offering their customers, the employees that work in the organizations they direct and manage, and everyone else out there who might have occasion to enter into contact with the organization for which they work.

An significant proportion of that resistance, both intellectual and cultural, comes from the inability to acknowledge that maybe work cannot be designed and structured based on the principles that have been in place for more than three-quarters of a century now.  Much of that in turn has to do with what the words “work” and "management" still mean to us (especially the incumbents of managerial roles).  It’s hard to give up power and control, especially when you are charged with making stuff happen and the budgets and performance management and compensation bonus schemes reinforce the collective charge:

"we tend to overestimate the impacts in the short term because we overlook all the details of how things are done and the tenacious stickiness of peoples’ habits, and tend to underestimate the impacts in the longer term because we overlook or ignore the scope and depth of accumulated change."

Today, there’s a lot of chatter about bottom-up versus top-down, about the collective wisdom of the organizational crowd, and about various related themes.  However, there’s also ongoing dissonance or competition between the approaches to organizing and “optimizing” knowledge work. This competition hearkens back to Stan Davis’ forecast about the integration of hierarchy and networks, and highlights the tensions and friction between structured and defined organizational forms and activity and the growing world of hyperlinked flows in which knowledge and meaning are built layer by layer, exchange by exchange (all those hyperlinked interactions that increasingly make up what we call "knowledge work") as enabled by social computing.

This concludes Part I of the Masterclass on ‘The design and management of knowledge work in perspective’. Part II will follow in the November issue of Inside Knowledge.

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Anyone interested now ?

You’d be well on your way to being a member-in-good-standing of the ownership society by now.

Just asking …

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I was recently asked to develop an article for the magazine Inside Knowledge, which was turned into a 2-part MasterClass.  It is just about to be published, so I thought I would share it here as well.

It’s a long-ish article, so for the purposes of this blog I have split Part I of the IK October MasterClass into two parts, the second being posted tomorrow.  I will post Parts 3 and 4 when IK goes ahead with publishing Part II of the MasterClass in mid-October.


The design and management of knowledge work in perspective - from the Industrial Era to the Networked Age


It took 30 years for Taylorism to finally become the standard for business management. How long will it take to replace it in the Knowledge Age?


Much has been written in the past couple of years about the impending demise of knowledge management.  The majority of the analyses focus on how unwieldy, cumbersome, rigidifying and overly complex it can be (or usually is) for any given organization to address and come to grips with the core principles of  ‘traditional’ knowledge management in an environment increasingly characterized by interlinked networks and continuous flows of information.


I use quotes around the word ‘traditional’ in the first paragraph because it’s useful to remember that knowledge management as a domain with codified principles, approaches and protocols is not very old.  It came into being in response to organizations everywhere beginning (depending upon what you pick as a starting point) either in the late 70’s or the 80’s their respective treks through several waves of informatization (the codification, archiving and ordering of the basic information organizations use to operate, communicate and create). 


Indeed, I am old enough (just) and have been working long enough (just) to feel entitled to tell a brief story, in two parts – the first part here, and the second later on in this masterclass.


Banking as a reference point


I began my adult career right out of university working in one of Canada’s large banks, mid-way through the year 1976.  I was one of the first of a wave of university graduates the banks had begun hiring, presumably because they had begun to see and believe that the North American economies and markets were beginning to move into what was then called the Information Age. 


Prior to this shift in personnel strategy (the term human resources wasn’t around then, it appeared in the early to mid 80s) the banks hired high school graduates, mainly because banking work was pretty unchanging, based on standardized principles and practices such that the differentiating factors for an illustrious career depended upon longevity while acquiring experience, intuition and being steeped in the practices and culture of the bank. 


With one exception (the bank I then worked for), the CEO’s and presidents of the Canadian banks were men who had started out around the end of World War II working as tellers in small branches, often in the hinterlands of Canada.  Going to university was relatively rare then, commerce curricula and degrees even rarer and I believe (though I may be wrong) that the designation MBA did not exist in 1970. (The first Executive Masters in Business Administration (EMBA) was first offered at the Wharton School of Business in 1940).


Today, of course, banks are one of the most important users of computers, data bases, algorithm-and-complexity-science-based programs of all sorts, and the Web – for interactive interconnections with clients via automated online banking, vast networks of automatic teller machines and increasingly collaborative platforms inside the firewall.  But in the early 70’s, customers came into the branch with their passbooks, tellers wrote the deposits and withdrawals into those passbooks with ink and initialed beside the entries, and balanced at the end of the day using a ledger card and a big-iron adding machine.  I know this is so … I was there and as a management trainee had to learn the difference between a debit and a credit the (unforgettable) hard way.


I’ll come back to the second part of this story a bit later on.


Resistance but adoption


In my opinion, as organizations have moved along an evolutionary path similar to the one described above, knowledge management as a means of enhancing and making more effective the use of information flows, extant domain, market or industry knowledge and human talent has suffered from the same general obstacles and challenges as the fields of (amongst others) organizational effectiveness, learning and innovation.  Regardless of its compelling conceptual value, a disciplined and sustained approach to knowledge management exists. And it has been adopted at the mercy of the particular philosophy of a set of organizational leaders, organizational politics, the prioritization amongst a range of competing objectives and the sustainable access to and availability of resources.


Notwithstanding these obstacles, I submit that creating and managing pertinent and useful knowledge is more important and of greater priority today than ever.  For more organizations today (and tomorrow) in an increasingly wider range of industries, countries and markets, useful and pertinent just-in-time information and knowledge are key factors impacting the organization’s ability to operate, develop products and services consumers and clients want and purchase, create economic value and adapt to continuously changing conditions.


Escaping the industrial mindset


However, there’s another very large obstacle in the way, I believe.  Organizations of any size and scope in the year 2008 still, by and large, use the assumptions about efficiency, division of labour and accountability that were developed in the first half of the 20th century, when those assumptions began to be codified into management science … standardized methods for organizing and managing work and productivity.


Taylorism and the principles of scientific management changed a lot about the nature of work in North American and western Europe pretty quickly, all things told … but it still took thirty or forty years to emerge into its relatively full-blown effects.  At its heyday, the manufacturing might and effectiveness of the United States that Taylorism helped create enabled it (along with important agricultural and resources capabilities and growing financial clout) to become the world power economically over several decades at most. 


In an important sense, it was useful to his theories that 1) they helped respond to the massive spread of the Industrial Era’s requirements for growth in the first half of the 20th century, and 2) World Wars I and II came along in the late 1910’s and in the late 1930’s to provide a massive need for manufacturing.
Thirty plus years elapsed from the publication of Principles of Scientific Management in 1911 to the codification of those principles into work design methodologies in the 1940’s and early 1950’s.  Taylor and his theories get a bad rap today, but it is clear that they were highly useful to the process of creating wealth by improving manufacturing processes and capabilities.


It seems banal to say that those theories are less effective today, but I am not sure that’s the case.  There have been no comprehensive theories and principles come along (yet) to replace Taylorism. Notwithstanding a plethora of management books published since the mid-1980’s promising enhance organizational effectiveness … more often than not by combining Taylorist principles with developmental workarounds and adaptations.


And yet … the recent emergence of the field called Enterprise 2.0, and clarion calls for management innovation that have followed (see Gary Hamel, Andrew McAfee, Tom Davenport, Don Tapscott, Dave Snowden and many, many others) promises much potential disruption.  It also portends significant struggle as the forces of buttoned-and-battened-down efficiency derived from a manufacturing-focused era vie with the forces arising from networked flows of information in an era where economic value is derived from the construction and application of knowledge in networks to product and service design and delivery (manufacturing happens in China now).


So, I am thinking about the future of work as it pertains to the principles for designing networked knowledge work.
______________________


Legacy of Taylorism


The following is compiled from Wikipedia:


Taylor published his Principles of Scientific Management in 1911, which elucidated four core principles:


1. Replace rule-of-thumb work methods with methods based on a scientific study of the tasks.
2. Scientifically select, train, and develop each employee rather than passively leaving them to train themselves.
3. Provide “Detailed instruction and supervision of each worker in the performance of that worker’s discrete task”.
4. Divide work nearly equally between managers and workers -  managers apply scientific management principles and the workers actually perform the tasks


Management theory


Taylor thought that by analysing work, the “One Best Way” to do it would be found. He is most remembered for developing the time and motion study. He would break a job into its component parts and measure each to the hundredth of a minute.


He was generally unsuccessful in getting his concepts applied and was dismissed from Bethlehem Steel. It was largely through the efforts of his disciples (most notably H.L. Gantt) that industry came to implement his ideas


Managers and workers


Taylor had very precise ideas about how to introduce his system:


“It is only through enforced standardization of methods, enforced adoption of the best implements and working conditions, and enforced cooperation that this faster work can be assured. And the duty of enforcing the adoption of standards and enforcing this cooperation rests with management alone.”


Workers were supposed to be incapable of understanding what they were doing. According to Taylor this was true even for rather simple tasks.
 ”I can say, without the slightest hesitation”, Taylor told a congressional committee, “that the science of handling pig-iron is so great that the man who is … physically able to handle pig-iron and is sufficiently phlegmatic and stupid to choose this for his occupation is rarely able to comprehend.”


Scope of Taylor’s Influence in the United States

  • Carl Barth helped Taylor to develop speed-and-feed-calculating slide rules to a previously unknown level of usefulness. Similar aids are still used in machine shops today. Barth became an early consultant on scientific management and later taught at Harvard.

  • H. L. Gantt developed the Gantt chart, a visual aid for scheduling tasks and displaying the flow of work.

  • Harrington Emerson introduced scientific management to the railroad industry, and proposed the dichotomy of staff versus line employees, with the former advising the latter.

  • Morris Cooke adapted scientific management to educational and municipal organizations.

  • Hugo Münsterberg created industrial psychology.

  • Lillian Gilbreth introduced psychology to management studies.

  • Frank Gilbreth (husband of Lillian) discovered scientific management while working in the construction industry, eventually developing motion studies independently of Taylor. These logically complemented Taylor’s time studies, as time and motion are two sides of the efficiency improvement coin. The two fields eventually became time and motion study.

  • Harvard University, one of the first American universities to offer a graduate degree in business management in 1908, based its first-year curriculum on Taylor’s scientific management.

  • Harlow S. Person, as dean of Dartmouth’s Amos Tuck School of Administration and Finance, promoted the teaching of scientific management.

  • James O. McKinsey, professor of accounting at the University of Chicago and founder of the consulting firm bearing his name, advocated budgets as a means of assuring accountability and of measuring performance.
    ________________


Part II - Coming Tomorrow


Social computing drives change …

Via the Guardian, Op-Ed by Michael Dougherty

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The American way or the highway

[ Snip ... ]

So get ready, world. Managed mass democracy and market capitalism are coming your way. Just wait until commercial homebuilders bulldoze the horrifyingly particular - and therefore strange - features of your landscape and put cable television outlets in every room for you. Surely in gratitude you’ll abandon any weird and ancient religious scruples. We prefer religion that comes from television. Or religion that is television. Here’s a bonus: once you get hooked up, your elite class can quote Marshall McLuhan, while ignoring everything he says.

[ Snip ... ]

Sometimes the "hidden hand" of the free economy feels a little … violating, I know. But that’s just its adolescent fumbling. Your inhibitions - or local economy - need to be dropped. Take a deep breath. If it hurts, just lie back and think of England. Or take this pill.

We’re going to do a little role-playing here. It’ll be kinky. I’ll be America, and I’ll start: "Now, open your markets, bitch! I’m going to liberate you so hard."

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Via the blog ClusterFuck Nation …

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A Ripe Moment

It turns out the real hurricane blew through Wall Street last week, not Galveston.

This morning, Manhattan is strewn chest-deep with the debris of banking and at this hour (seven a.m.) nobody knows how far, deep, and wide the damage will spread.

[ Snip ... ]

We should be frightened by the political implications of this Great Implosion of presumed wealth. Some group of somebodies will have to clean up this mess. Moving toward a major election, it is hard to imagine the American people giving the clean-up task to the very group that created the mess — no matter how many cute little faces Sarah Palin can make on TV. Both parties have so far managed to ignore the gathering crisis of banking and money, but they can’t ignore the sequoia trees crashing down around their ankles and shaking the earth they stand on.


At issue now will be the question of legitimacy in all its human social dimensions. Is our money legitimate? Is the authority of our elected officials legitimate? Are our values and ideas legitimate? These are the things that will determine what kind of future we find ourselves in.


So, to begin this process, and to clarify the situation, I urge readers of this blog to identify the Republican Party by its new brand-name: the party that wrecked America. At least, then, we can reinstate one cardinal value into the juddering structure of what we claim to believe: that actions have consequences, that you can’t just swindle and loot a society and walk away with the swag.


Spread the word, change the tone of this campaign, and keep posted.

This will be a momentous week.

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Thanks to Jeneane the Sessum for the pointage.

A laugh-riot, fer shoor.

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Via CNN.com.

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Pope condemns love of money, power

PARIS, France (AP) — Pope Benedict XVI condemned unbridled "pagan" passion for power, possessions and money as a modern-day plague Saturday as he led more than a quarter of a million Catholics in an outdoor Mass in Paris.

Pope Benedict XVI arrives to celebrate an outdoors Mass on the Esplanade des Invalides in Paris.

Benedict was making his first visit as pontiff to the French capital, renowned for its luxury goods, fashion sense and cultural riches.

"Has not our modern world created its own idols?" Benedict said in his homily, and wondered aloud whether people have "imitated, perhaps inadvertently, the pagans of antiquity?"

"This is a question that all people, if they are honest with themselves, cannot help but ask," the pontiff said.

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