Canada’s CBC Offers Provocative Documentary

Kunstler’s views aren’t very well thought through. He’s certainly entitled to his opinion about suburbs being “soulless” (although data point to higher social capital and charitable giving), but his belief that peak oil will end them is, well, nuts.

See these posts for the specific counter-arguments:

http://houstonstrategies.blogspot.com/2005/03/this-man-is-certifiably-nuts-james.html

http://houstonstrategies.blogspot.com/2005/10/why-peak-oil-does-not-equal-death-of.html

Thanks for stopping by, Tory.

A couple of points (and I am going to try to be careful here, ‘cuz no doubt you’re much smarter than me … noting your McKinsey alum status on your blog).

First, I did not ascribe any positive or negative value to Kunstler’s involvement withj the documentary, and my post offers absolutely no perspective on what he may or may not have said, or what the CBC documentary incorporated of his material, theory or viewpoint.

So, in this post I am not ascribing to him or his point of view any validity or non-validity.

Next, I note that the posts you offer in support of your view that Kunstler is ‘certifiably nuts” date from 2.5 and 3 years ago … lots of water under lots of bridges since then.

The key points that you raise are, to my understanding, still being examined, explored and debated.

I have been reading Kunstler’s blog (and others) on this and other related subjects for some time, and in reading your posts I have the sense that you may have missed some of the key points underpinning his core argument, but I’ll let you figure out what those pieces / elements and how they may support (or not) his core premise (remember, you’re the McKinsey alum, not me ;-).

At any rate, by and large I see things from a similar perspective to Kunstler’s but (as with most hopefully reasonably intelligent people) I don’t agree with some of what he has to say, and there are areas (such as US forign policy) where I think he is close to nuts … misguided, at least.

I also found myself wondering, given that the posts you offer to refute his POV or to support your contention that he is nuts date from 2.5 / 3 years ago, whether or not you are on some sort of crusade or are a stalker. I mean, it takes some work (or an unhealthy interest) to track down an obscure post like mine and offer up your specific but dated counter-arguments. What exactly are you up to, or who do you work for (I am assuming from the header on your blog that you are firmly in the “oil is good, and there’s lots of it’ camp, given that your mission appears to be promoting Houston and augmenting its opportunities, profile and image - as Houston is an oil city).

I did notice you were carefully neutral in your commentary. Didn’t mean to imply otherwise. Sorry if it came across that way.

I will admit I am not a reader of his material, but I do follow lots of different news sources on urban issues, and his name and theories come up from time to time. In a couple cases, I thought it was worth responding on my blog. My understanding is that he believes peak oil will end the suburbs as we know them and everybody will move back into high-density city cores and walk or ride transit. I believe he is not adequately considering technological and economic adaptivity (obviously). Example: plug-in hybrids. Example: a local business plan competition at Rice just finished that included a company that claims it can get the equivalent of $20 oil out of coal without releasing the carbon dioxide. Example: all sorts of biofuel technologies. The list goes on and on.

I’m not on a crusade. I have your blog on my feeds because it relates to my company, OpenTeams, and our concept of the Entrepreneurial Organization, which shares many similarities to Wirearchy (love your stuff, by the way). So it was sort of random that you mentioned Kunstler and I connected it to some old posts on my hobby blog, which involves a mostly local dialogue on making Houston a better city.

Oil and Gas is certainly our #1 industry, but I’ve advocated on the need for the city to expand that industry cluster to all energy, including alternative and green energy, esp. since oil & gas may get replaced by technology and/or alternatives over the next couple of decades. But I believe the personal vehicle is now a permanent part of American society (and increasingly the world) - it’s just a question of what propulsion technology runs it. We’re not going back to high density and transit, at least not on any mass level (certainly a niche lifestyle that’s growing in popularity though).

Hey, Tory.

This is the great part of blogging .. getting into a substantial (toothsome, as in chewy, is for some reason the word that first popped into my mind) discussion is the payoff, isn’t it.

I think you are right, that one of Kunstler’s core premises (if not THE core premise) is that Peak Oil will have a large impact on the exurbs of North America. I noticed in one of your posts (I think the one citing Randall O’Toole) that it was mentioned that Europe also has suburbs - Yes, and … much higher gasoline prices, much smaller cars, much more in the way of daily amenities within walking distances of many dwellers, and much better trains, public transport, etc.

I understand the POV that Kunstler is not adequately considering technological and economic adaptivity. It is certainly something that tens, if not hundreds, often remind him about on the comments section of his blog. It certainly is useful to watch that broad discussion on an ongoing basis … it has received the effort and wisdom of many researchers and journalists over the past half decade, I think.

It seems clear to me that there will be much technological and economic adaptation. Whether enough is, for me, an interesting question .. and this is where I think Kunstler’s thinking has evolved to, or at least where a nuanced understanding is useful.

I believe that he is trying to say is that so much of how we live, how we transport, distribute, manage and dispose of what we use … effectively, how we live (notably, in suburbs) … is so deeply interwoven with an ongoing (and increasing) need for oil … and that this dynamic is accelerating much more quickly in other parts of the world, notably the BRIC countries, that the adaptations won’t be nearly rapid enough.

That POV is certainly open to much discussion and debate.

Speaking only for myself, I tend to agree with his argument at a meta level. i think we will see increasingly disruptive possibilities.

Example: one of his recent statements is that it’s not “running out of oil” that’s the first or necessarily most significant problem that will instantiate the demise of the suburbs … it’s lots of the things other than gasoline for cars upon which we dpend for oil that are likely to cause breakdowns, at first here and there.

I live in Vancouver, as you may know if you’ve been reading nmmy blog for a little while. It’s a city that is vigorously pursuing eco-density as the core principle for the growth of this relatively new city, and wow, is it ever growing fast ! Almost all new development of condos and growth of suburbs (little lor no land left between the mountains and the ocean) is dictated by that principle. But I think that there are relativley major differences in the approach(es) to growth pursued by Canadian cities vi-vis the growth strategies and policies pursued by majore American cities.

I’m glad that you are interested in “wirearchy”. As I am guessing you will know from my blogging, I continue to believe strongly that there will continue to be major changes evolve due to the interconnectedness enabled by the Internet, such that there will come to be an “archy” based on being wired and interconnected.

And so on ..

I went to Vancouver (and Victoria) a few years back. Beautiful cities. I’d bet Vancouver has a higher proportion of its growth in density than any other city in North America. And it’s one of those rare cities where it seems to work. In the USA, even in Portland, they have to subsidize dense TOD development. The value proposition is just not compelling to most Americans, and most metros have plenty of competing municipalities to attract people if they don’t like the lifestyle options in others - even with gas approaching $4 (still only about 3-4% of median household income). In the US, a big part of the problem is bad urban schools (50%+ dropout rate recently reported). It’s why most of the urban renaissance is childless households. Maybe they’re much better in Canada?

> But I think that there are relatively major differences in the approach(es) to growth pursued by Canadian cities vi-vis the growth strategies and policies pursued by major American cities.

I agree. Canada inherited, and seems comfortable with, much more centralized and overarching government power like the British and French systems. The US has pretty much the opposite position, preferring minimal government and decentralized local control.

That dropout rate is a big problem for your collective future.

Another interesting “mini” phenomenon I’ve been watching are the choices by some companies (Microsoft, Ubisoft, EA, and a few others) to locate new research centres or other types of expansion in major Canadian cities because of the differences in work force capability (supposedly) and because (evidently) the “liveability” of said cities (and the country).

“Canada inherited, and seems comfortable with, much more centralized and overarching government power like the British and French systems. The US has pretty much the opposite position, preferring minimal government and decentralized local control.”

I suppose there’s an argument just waiting to be had regarding in this sentence above in respect to what the operational meaning of the word “control” is in a person’s daily life. There’s a fascinatinating duality that (I believe) non-Usians see that USians may not see .. whilst y’all see yourselves individually as very ‘free” and liberty-oriented, there’s a deep degree of control and conformity derived from the manic pursuity of “life, liberty and happiness” and the never-ending chanse for bucks that accomopanies that, whilst we here suffer under a different tag line … “peace, order and good government”.

I know both countries well. I “feel” more free and less “controlled” here than I do there … but that’s just me and my personal feelings and opinion.

I am not a good person to talk to about the US these days. I was born and raised in Conn., but have been a dual citizen since birth, and opted for Canada at university age and have always lived either in Canada or Europe since. I’m one of the 80% or so that feels that the USA is desperately on the wrong track these days.

I thought Bill Gates said the Microsoft expansion was purely because of the (dumb) H1-B visa limitations in the US. He would have much preferred expansion of the Seattle campus if he could have brought the talent into the US. That said, Canada certainly has talent and “livability”, and my wife and I have loved every trip we’ve taken there (Van, Vic, Calgary/LL, Toronto, Ottawa - hopefully Montreal and Quebec City soon). You might find this Canada post amusing from a blog that has skyrocketed in popularity over the last few months (lots of press and now a book deal):

http://stuffwhitepeoplelike.wordpress.com/2008/02/24/75-threatening-to-move-to-canada/

The freedom model in the US definitely spreads the distribution curve to higher highs (wealth, innovation, opportunity, scientific discoveries, medical advances, technology, patents, entrepreneurship, etc.) and lower lows (crime, poverty, pollution, education attainment, health care for the poor, etc.). It seems to be the nature of the system - liberty is what you do with it - and people can, and do, usually pick one side of the coin to focus their attention on. The waves of immigrants trying to come to the US seem focused on the upside.

I’m glad you have appreciated your visits.

“The waves of immigrants trying to come to the US seem focused on the upside.”

It’s what said by many people each time there’s this kind of discussion. In a world of 6 billion people with 85 - 90% of them or so desperately poor (I’m not a stickler for the exact percentage according to those who measure poverty and those who use statistics extensively - let’s just say that the vast majority of the world outside of continental North America and western Europe are poor) of course there will be several or many millions that want to escape their grinding poverty and are fanatically determined to do so .. and yes you are right, many immigrants see nothing but opportunity in front of them somewhere like the US where a small percentage will eventually go to university (or their children will) and they themselves may well find a place of work that rewards their determination, where the chances of that happening where they came from are nil.

I also think that is increasingly a mythof sorts perpetuated over time by the stories of “America is the land of opportunity”. Many immigrants have a tough time, and work desperately hard in the lowest level jobs .. to be sure, still better (at least into 2008) than what they were likely to have found at home. I come from that kind of family lineage, on my mother’s side - my maternal grandparents were illiterate poor from eastern Europe. Their life in Detroit startiing in the first decade of the 20th century was no picnic .. but yes, their daughters went to school and to university and became quite successful, and their son became a successful entrepreneur.

Canada has the same phenomenon .. you will probably have noticed the vast numbers (the majorities, in fact) of non-Caucasian peoples in the major Canadian cities of Vancouver and Toronto (which is rapidly becoming the case in some of the smaller cities as well.

I’m sure both of these countries are quite appealing to many around the world that are living a life today that you and I can only imagine in a relatively sterile way.

But I think lots of current and would-be immigrants only have a dream, as opposed to good amounts of information as to what they will actually find once they get to either country.

It may be just be me, my personal impression, but it certainly seems like there’s a reasonable faction that seems to be turning reasonably xenophobic down there, notably on your southern border but arguably with respect to people from foreign lands with darker skin tones … in the name of security, mainly I think.

Understandable as a reaction in one sense, early weak signal of something less understandable or attractive in another sense, perhaps.

> It may be just be me, my personal impression, but it certainly seems like there’s a reasonable faction that seems to be turning reasonably xenophobic down there, notably on your southern border but arguably with respect to people from foreign lands with darker skin tones … in the name of security, mainly I think. Understandable as a reaction in one sense, early weak signal of something less understandable or attractive in another sense, perhaps.

Absolute agreement. The US is on the wrong track with the immigration issue, as well as the growing resistance to free trade.

This is anecdotal - no data - but Houston is also popular with a lot of British expats, not just oil and gas, but info tech too. I’m friends with some of them, and they claim their standard of living is much, much higher here. I also know one French info tech expat here that says the same thing. So it’s not just immigration from developing countries, although I will admit it is the vast majority.

“I’m friends with some of them, and they claim their standard of living is much, much higher here”

I have often enough heard this, both with respect to the US and Canada. I am sort-of suspicious about it, for some possibly nuanced reasons.

I lived in the UK (London) for four years, in Paris for almost a year, and go for extended visits to various western European cities at least twice a year.

To my tastes (with the caveat of a decent income) I am increasingly of the opinion that the quality of life (which may or may not be the same thing as “standard of living”) in some of the places I know over there is at least equal to much t=of the States.

I think there’s a lot of semi-conscious self-selection behind those statements. There are many many British ex-pats in Vancouver (and South African, Australian, etc.). As a vast generalization, they feel stuck or dissatisfied in Britain, and like the inexpensive (in relation to the UK) housing, gasoline, food, the vast range of consumerism available to them ( which may = “standard” of living). Quality of life may be something different .. given a half decent income from a half-decent job, personally I’ll take London over Houston any day .. or Paris (helps that I speak French) or Amsterdam or Copenhagen or Berlin. Quality of life to me means (on average) better educational system, better and more widely accessible health care, public transport, better newspapers and television news, and so on.

But I do not want to appear hopelessly romantic … Europe is still much more socially stratified in some ways (though you could argue that money provides pretty definitive stratification in the USA and Canada), and the various European countries do indeed have their own xenophobic challenges and economic innovation and growth challenges, and so on.

I am at the moment, as I am typing this, listening to a delicious podcast by an unnamed composer on “Radiating Possibility” .. lovely quote, “whenever we have a winner and a loser, there’s aways a downward spiral .. and our education system is a downward spiral”.

It’s a very delicious and intelligent podcast, about awakening possibility in people. I’ll share the link here, and I hope you’ll take the 40 minutes or so it will take to listen to it. It is truly delicious, in my opinion.

http://download.world-television.com/wef/2008/23970_en_a64_00.mp3

I can appreciate that. Different people value things differently. I think here they’re mostly focused on the size and quality of the home they can get, while having plenty of income left over for private schools for their kids (if they’re not in a good public school area, like the city core), a nice car, vacationing, and eating out. Especially eating out. Our restaurant scene is amazing. Zagat says we eat out more often (on average), at the lowest average price, than any other major metro in the country. And, just to plug my town on your education and health care criteria, I’ll also point out we have top-20 university Rice and the world’s largest medical center, including the nation’s highest ranked cancer hospital. And, maybe to alleviate some of your skepticism of Houston, here’s a very short, less-than-a-minute Flash animation showing off the major city features (from Rice):

http://www.explore.rice.edu/explore/Houston1.asp?SnID=1304869625

And thanks for the link - I’ll add your mp3 to my next workout.